La falsa ilusión del éxito

The evidence is troubling: Most big business initiatives don't pay off. Poor results, economists say, are an inevitable consequence of companies taking rational risks in uncertain situations. However, after analyzing it from psychology, the authors consider that this failure is a consequence of decision making based on illusory optimism instead of a rational assessment of gains, losses and probabilities. The cognitive biases and organizational pressures at the root of that over-optimism are pervasive, but their effects can be mitigated. By complementing traditional forecasting processes with the analysis of similar initiatives completed previously, managers can discern much more precisely the likely outcome of a project. That "external vision" is a reality bath that reduces the chances of a company embarking on a disastrous investment of time and money.